THE RAINBOW — THE WORDS
Preface
The colours & the toggles
The colours are the house ramp, not the classic blue-to-red: the fire sale is red, the centre band is bitcoin orange, and the far top — where you sell — is candle green, because a realised gain is a green candle. Bitcoin's own path is drawn in bitcoin orange on every chart; the trajectory stays gold. The classic reference scale is one toggle away, and rainbowchart.html stays on it.
Every layer is a toggle above each chart — world debt (on the arc it lifts the ceiling to hold the debt line, which sits about 17× above the top of the arc today), the BTC path, the halvings, the milestones, the key, and classic colours — and the ± steps the price ceiling: $10k … $100T on the substrate charts, width on the arc.
The arc — the reference rainbow
This is the rainbow chart in its reference form, rendered live by DVLuvRainbowChart (readable source, zero dependencies, price series embedded). The organ still calls nothing itself: the page hands it the current price every fifteen minutes and it carries the bitcoin-orange path from its last embedded close to that reading, which is the green-ringed dot. Nine bands on linear time against a log price axis — and linear time is what bends the fit into an arc. Left axis is BTC price; the right axis prices the same gridlines as market cap at the 21,000,000 terminal supply. Ungated: the fit is public arithmetic and so is the series it draws.
The reference fit — ln(price) = 5.0222935652 · ln(383.8277947247 + x) −
32.2162634088, R² = 0.9612 over 5,836 daily closes, 2010-08-16 → 2026-08-08. Solid white
verticals are halvings that have happened; dashed are scheduled. The window runs nine months
past the live reading, as the reference draws it from its last close. Full page:
the rainbow chart · both renderers, Python and JavaScript, are
published at Professor-Codephreak/rainbow-chart
with a parity test that fails if they ever disagree.
Two fits, and why both are kept
The arc above is the reference fit — the method every other rainbow chart is drawn from, kept verbatim so this one is comparable to them. The chart further down is the in-house fit on log-log axes, where the same idea straightens into a ruler. That one is the honest instrument for a long extrapolation, because nothing hides in curvature; it is the wrong instrument for where are we now, because on log time the years 2010–2011 take a fifth of the canvas while 2020–2026 get an eighth. The arc spends its width on the years you are actually asking about. Neither is more true than the other — they answer different questions, so the page draws both and says which is which.
Delivered to wallets
The rainbow is delivered on login. CONNECT to COLLECT — sign in with your wallet (MetaMask signature) or a social identity at the doorway, then return here: the chart, the band prices, and the forward window unlock to your session. The gate is a handshake, not a secret — the chart source is open; gated delivery is the consent rail, the same doctrine as the gesture.
The rainbow substrate — the whole estimate, to the last coin
This rainbow is not an image. It is rendered live by DVLuvRainbow, a DeltaVerse substrate (readable source, zero dependencies, zero network calls): the published fit and the nine bands, redrawn from the arithmetic every time the page opens. The fit is public — the measured price path stays login-delivered. The dot is live: BTC read from the free tier and refreshed every 15 minutes (the caption under each chart carries the price and the minute it was read). The figures quoted in the prose below stay pinned to the fit's reference date, 2026-08-05, BTC $64,482, so the worked arithmetic can be checked line by line — where the dot sits today is what the chart shows.
Log-log axes, so the fit is a straight ruler and a long extrapolation hides nothing in curvature. The nine names stand in a stack at the top-left, each pointing at the band it names wherever the ribbon passes at that height — and standing alone where it does not, because nine leaders fanning across the canvas said less than nine swatches. The gold run is the trajectory — picked up at the $30,000 mark, carried through today and out to 2035, 2050 and the last coin mined, after which miners are paid by transaction fees alone.
The right axis prices the same picture as market cap, one clean decade at a time — $1B, $10B, $100B, $1T — with the year the fit reaches each. Two magnitudes are marked across it: world debt at ~$345T and the quadrillion, where the derivatives economy sits. The point those marks make is one of capacity, not prophecy: 21 million units divide into a quadrillion without strain, so the arithmetic has room for the whole of it. The crossing years are what the regression says, not what the market owes.
You are here
At the reference date, BTC $64,482 sat in the "accumulate" band — 10−0.28 below the center line. The center line values today at $121,932; the dot is where the market disagrees with the curve, which is the only place a sentiment reading lives.
I. How it is built — in-house
The fit. Least squares over 360 observations of log-price against log-time (days since the genesis block, 2009-01-03):
log₁₀(price) = 5.380917 · log₁₀(days since genesis) − 15.403007 R² = 0.936
The bands. Nine bands span the fit's own residual range (−0.70 … +1.00 in log₁₀ — every historical price falls inside), each band 100.1889 ≈ 1.545× tall. The labels keep the classic vocabulary for comprehension; the placement is ours, derived from the data rather than inherited. The colours are the house ramp, not the classic blue-to-red: the fire sale is red, the centre band is bitcoin orange, and the far top — where you sell — is candle green, because a realised gain is a green candle. Bitcoin's own path is drawn in bitcoin orange on every chart here; the trajectory stays gold. Every layer is a toggle above each chart — world debt, the BTC path, the halvings, the milestones, the key — and the ± steps the price ceiling.
The sources. 2010–2013: documented public-record monthly anchors (the pre-aggregator era). 2013→today: the DeFiLlama keyless feed (biweekly closes), spot cross-referenced against CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap. The page itself fetches nothing: the chart is a static SVG, correct as of its date, regenerated on republish — approximation is a display decision, and staleness is a dated fact rather than a silent one.
II. The bands, priced today
| band | offset from center (log₁₀) | price range, 2026-08-05 |
|---|---|---|
| basically a fire sale | 10^-0.7000 … 10^-0.5111 | $24,329 … $37,584 |
| BUY! | 10^-0.5111 … 10^-0.3222 | $37,584 … $58,062 |
| accumulate | 10^-0.3222 … 10^-0.1333 | $58,062 … $89,698 |
| still cheap | 10^-0.1333 … 10^+0.0556 | $89,698 … $138,571 |
| HODL! | 10^+0.0556 … 10^+0.2444 | $138,571 … $214,072 |
| is this a bubble? | 10^+0.2444 … 10^+0.4333 | $214,072 … $330,712 |
| FOMO intensifies | 10^+0.4333 … 10^+0.6222 | $330,712 … $510,903 |
| sell. seriously, SELL! | 10^+0.6222 … 10^+0.8111 | $510,903 … $789,273 |
| maximum bubble territory | 10^+0.8111 … 10^+1.0000 | $789,273 … $1,219,316 |
III. What a rainbow measures
The rainbow is a revealed instrument on the slowest clock: it reads the market's disposition toward Bitcoin against the only regressor that never changes — time itself. Where the CNN Fear & Greed Index and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index read disposition over days, the rainbow reads it over epochs: which band the price lives in is a statement about collective patience. In the emotonomic frame (SENTIMENT, §IV) it is the outermost ring of the instrument stack — epochs → days (Fear & Greed) → blocks (gesture velocity, resonance depth, sentiment.shift).
The honest caveats. A log-time regression has no economic mechanism behind it — it is a description of history, not a law; past rainbows have been redrawn when new history bent the fit (this one will be too — the fit parameters are dated and versioned); and the band vocabulary is sentiment about sentiment. Use it the way the paper uses every instrument: as one dial among many, never as the needle.
IV. The window ahead — the next halving and the five-year read
The fit, projected forward. The halving rhythm and the residual rhythm share a clock: historically the deep-band visits (where the dot sits now) came in the season before a halving, and the excursions into the upper bands arrived 12–18 months after. If the next cycle rhymes, the path runs: lower bands through the pre-halving trough, across the center line near the April 2028 halving, upper-band excursions inside the five-year window. One honest asymmetry: each cycle's amplitude has damped — 2013 overshot the center far more than 2021 did — so the center is the gravity, the halving sets the phase, and the amplitude is the one thing the chart cannot promise.
| date | center line | "accumulate" band | top of "HODL!" | "max bubble" starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| today · 2026-08-05 | $121,931 | $58,065 … $89,705 | $214,050 | $789,250+ |
| next halving · ~2028-04 | $200,044 | $95,263 … $147,172 | $351,177 | $1,294,869+ |
| the 5-year window · 2031-08 | $468,623 | $223,164 … $344,765 | $822,666 | $3,033,356+ |
| the century mark · 2100 (extrapolation absurdum) | $870,996,627 | $414,778,726 … $640,791,103 | $1,529,031,643 | $5,637,888,378+ |
The 2100 row is printed to make the caveat visible, not to make a claim: a log-time regression, pushed to the century mark, hands back $871 million per bitcoin — and $6.1 billion by 2140. Numbers that large are the fit confessing it is a description of one era, not a law of the next eleven. Read the near rows with interest and the far rows as a lesson in humility.
IV·b. The long rainbow — extrapolation to 2140, every halving dated
Both axes logarithmic. In log-log space the fitted rainbow is a straight ruler, which is what makes a 130-year extrapolation honest to draw: nothing hides in curvature, and the absurdity is visible at a glance ($6B a coin at the end of emission — a description of one era confessing, not a law).
Every halving is a gold bar, and every bar carries its date — read them in the rail under the axis, set on their side because thirty-two dates will not fit across any width. Four bars are solid, and those are dated to the day, because they happened: 2012-11-28, 2016-07-09, 2020-05-11, 2024-04-20. The other twenty-eight are dashed and dated to the month only — they are 210,000 blocks apart at whatever pace the chain keeps, and a day would claim a precision the schedule does not have. The next one is 2028-04. Where the bars crowd closer than a label is wide, the rail thins its dates and keeps the bars; the four that happened and the one coming next are always dated. Emission ends when the subsidy does — 2135 at the pace the chain has actually kept, 2140 at the 600-second target, both marked on the trajectory. The bands are a mood; the verticals are a schedule.
The leap-year coincidence. Every halving so far has landed in a leap year — 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024 — and the schedule keeps the streak alive almost to the end: each cycle is 210,000 blocks ≈ 3.99 years, so the halving walks backward through the calendar (April → February by 2136) while staying on the four-year lattice. Of all thirty-two halvings, exactly one misses: halving #23, scheduled 2100-02-24 — the year 2100 sits on the lattice but is not a leap year, by the Gregorian century rule (divisible by 100, not by 400). The subsidy's final year, 2140, is a leap year again. Thirty-one of thirty-two — the exception is the calendar's fault, not Bitcoin's.
The price on every chart here is read fresh every fifteen minutes; the emission schedule under it moves on a quarterly cadence — a quarter emits ≈ 41,000 BTC (≈ 0.196% of the cap) and nothing else about the schedule changes. The near view — the dense 2010–2030 chart with live band prices — is delivered on wallet login on the rainbow page. The long view is public: the invitation, and the argument for why the gate is worth a handshake.
V. The ambiguous message of fact
Bitcoin is mathematically guaranteed to go to 21 million.
Read as a price, that sentence is sentiment — the upper bands talking. Read as a supply, it is consensus code, and the guarantee is real arithmetic: the block subsidy started at 50 BTC, halves every 210,000 blocks, and after thirty-three halvings pays nothing at all. The schedule is drawn on the long rainbow — every halving, dated; the bands are a mood, the verticals are the arithmetic.
The sentence is ambiguous, and the ambiguity is the point: one reading is a hope priced in dollars, the other is a certainty priced in blocks, and the whole discipline of this page is knowing which kind of claim you are holding.
Whether the banks include Bitcoin or Bitcoin becomes the bank — Bitcoin is here to stay. Either branch of that sentence ends at the same place: an asset with a supply fixed by arithmetic and a schedule fixed to the year 2140 does not need permission to persist. The banks deciding to hold it and the protocol outliving the question are the same fact wearing two futures.
Appendix — reproduce every number
# the feed (keyless) curl "https://coins.llama.fi/chart/coingecko:bitcoin?start=1279324800&span=500&period=2w" curl "https://coins.llama.fi/prices/current/coingecko:bitcoin" # the fit: least squares on (log10(days since 2009-01-03), log10(price)) # center(d) = 10 ** (5.380917 * log10(d) - 15.403007) # residual = log10(price) - log10(center) # bands = nine equal slices of [-0.70, +1.00] python3 -c "import math; d=6423; print(10**(5.380917*math.log10(d)-15.403007))" # ≈ 121932 python3 -c "import math; print(math.log10(64482)-(5.380917*math.log10(6423)-15.403007))" # ≈ -0.28 # the live price the charts draw (same-origin, refreshed every 15 minutes) curl -s https://luv.pythai.net/market.json | python3 -c "import sys,json; d=json.load(sys.stdin); print(d['btcUsd'], d['btcUsdAt'], d['btcUsdSource'])" # the halving schedule the last chart dates: 210,000 blocks per epoch, 33 epochs python3 -c "print(6930000*600/31557600+2009.0)" # naive genesis schedule ≈ 2140 # chain-anchored (live tip 961,239 @ 2026-08-05; two independent sources) curl -s https://mempool.space/api/blocks/tip/height curl -s https://blockchain.info/q/getblockcount python3 -c "print((6930000-961239)*600/31557600 + 2026.6)" # subsidy ends ≈ 2140.1 python3 -c "print((1411200-961239)*600/31557600 + 2026.6)" # 99% of supply ≈ 2035.15 python3 -c "print((1050000-961239)*600/86400)" # next halving in ~616 days ≈ 2028-04
Lineage: the original rainbow chart tradition (bitcointalk log-regression threads, 2014; Blockchaincenter's popularization) — rebuilt here from first principles. Data: DeFiLlama (primary feed), CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap (references). BTC genesis: Nakamoto, block 0, 2009-01-03.